The Annual New Year’s Predictions Blog 2024!

It’s that time again. To put on the record my Nostradamus-like crystal ball gazing thoughts on what will absolutely, almost certainly, without a doubt probably not happen in 2024.

 

But first, let’s revisit how badly I screwed things up this time last year!

 

GOT IT RIGHT/PRETTY CLOSE

 

I predicted a slowing of new entrants into the business as economics crunched newbie budgets and also that the general decline of rates would slow or stop as fewer new talent began to slow the supply/demand imbalance in certain genres.

 

This feels mostly on target. Many coaches, including myself, saw the VO-curious less likely to pull the trigger and invest in training in 2023, with many taking a long look but ultimately deciding not to make the leap. Interestingly, the high-end of the services business was very strong…..demos, retreats, conferences, workshops….high ticket items were oversubscribed as established or semi-established talent looked to level up. But entry level coaching demand slowed, and I think many people will receive that as good news.

 

Whether or not that directly impacted the second prediction, I’m not sure, but despite many pressures on the industry the one thing that felt like it was moving in a better direction this year were rates. We’re not going back to the ‘90s glory days on pay for broadcast work, but the attrition seems to have stopped, and if anything I saw agents/managers fighting harder than ever and often winning the battle for fairer pay and usage terms, while also actively working to protect us from AI threats. In the online/new world/marketing side of VO, it felt like rates steadied and even started to grow a bit, perhaps with some correlation to the overall socio-psychology pervasive across the globe in 2023 that favored the empowerment of labor over greed.

 

I was wrong about there being a mild recession this year, but the rest of my financial picks were spot on. Inflation is no longer inflating (though the damage has been done, and people remain unhappy at the massive cost increases that resulted from gross mismanagement of the pandemic.) And my financial market forecast is a straight-up “nailed it.” Bumpy start to 2023, flying high at the end. Gonna take a victory lap on that one.

 

I’ll also take a win on my AI prediction. Lots of hand-wringing and discussion. Negligible impact on the bottom line of most VOs. Considering where the discussion was twelve months ago, it feels safe to say that the fear of some immediate AI-pocalypse was overblown. That’s not to minimize potential risk, but the Terminator has not arrived yet by any means.

 

I predicted that the death of crypto was exaggerated and that Bitcoin would nearly double in 2023 from its 2022 end of year low. I’m not dropping money into doggy coins, but this feels like a pretty good call, too.

 

My prediction regarding classic demos remaining the standard with agents/managers/CDs, and samples becoming more important on casting sites feels pretty accurate.

 

As predicted, the union made a stand for voice actors and many others in 2023, and are continuing to pay more attention to the needs of voice talent. They’ll be back with a 5-person entourage at VO Atlanta this year and we’re excited to have them!

 

The prediction of Trump indictments was….accurate, LOL.

 

My prediction of some sunshine returning to VO reads panned out to some extent, especially for female voices, but on the other hand the flat read has morphed into something more detached and distracted, so this is a split decision.

 

2023 was indeed a running social party for VOs, with packed conferences and lots of red carpets. It could have been a better year business-wise, but we definitely had fun being together once again.

 

Okay, I’m feeling pretty good about those ones. What did I completely screw up???

 

BLEW IT/WTF WERE YOU THINKING?

 

No major agency mergers to speak of, with maybe the most interesting moves on the representation front being the elevation of Sumeet Iyengar to the head of Cope Management after his run at CESD, and Kristin Paiva striking out on her own to create a new animation casting company.

 

My Super Bowl picks clearly reflected heart over head, though the Bengals did get pretty close, (and I froze my toes in 15 degree weather in KC watching them lose a nail-biter in the AFC championship game.)

 

Sadly, Putin and Xi remain very much in charge, though Putin did get a little scare over the summer.

 

My presidential front runners pick was a split. Biden remains in top position for the Dems, but DeSantis never caught traction and is fading fast.

 

World peace. Yeah. Not so much.

 

So, looks like 2023 picks performed reasonably, let’s see what the Crystal Lobster says about 2024….

 

INDUSTRY: 2024 will clarify what areas of voiceover are likely to be heavily impacted by AI, and which are likely to feel very little effect. I am more confident than ever that this technology is very little threat to real creative VO, and will largely proliferate in the YouTube, cheap explainer, and perhaps Imaging and Affiliate spaces, where price pressure is always on. Low-end e-learning will disappear, but quality-minded buyers know this tech does not hold the attention of their audiences. Moreover, more and more regulation will be enacted to protect us and society at large, and people will continue to reflexively simply reject the vulgar inauthenticity of generative AI in creative media. If a technology makes a noise in a tech bro’s house, will anyone else hear it? We will see.

 

WORLD: Let’s get that Super Bowl pick out of the way. I’m throwing it back ‘80s style. The feel-good San Francisco 49ers will edge out the flash and dash Miami Dolphins in a down-to-the-wire thriller in Las Vegas.

 

INDUSTRY: Unpopular opinion: Under new ownership/leadership, (not me!) certain casting platforms and training organizations that have had massive reputational issues may begin to turn the corner as they pay more attention to criticisms of their past practices. Watch this space.

 

WORLD: It’s an election year, and what’s fun for political VO’s may be hell for the actual country, but we’ll see. I’m gonna go out on a limb here for a chance at a big win. On Election Day in November, voters will have not two but FOUR high-profile choices. President Biden, Republican nominee Donald Trump, Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and the No-Labels ticket, which I predict will nominate former Maryland governor Larry Hogan for President, and I hope to see Colorado governor Jared Polis as the VP choice.

 

Now, here’s where it gets fun. Nobody wins a majority of the electoral college, which means the Republican House of Representatives picks the President (and the Democratic Senate picks the VP.) You would expect this means a new term for Trump, but in an Earth-shattering bipartisan deal, Larry Hogan agrees to return to the Republican Party and leave No Labels in exchange for a majority of the House throwing the Presidency to him, and in exchange for Democratic support of this maneuver in the House, Senate Republicans agree to support Polis as VP, and the centrist Hogan/Polis administration quickly becomes the most popular in recent history.

 

INDUSTRY: Commercial VO sets records in 2024, with ad spend loosening as the economy improves and $15B spent on political ads.

 

WORLD: Sadly, the rest of the world continues to face dark days. The war in Israel and Gaza escalates to include Hezbollah and Lebanon, Iran gets involved directly or indirectly, and the US and allies strike the Houthis in Yemen as they continue to threaten maritime interests. Violence between supporters of both sides flares elsewhere in the world, with both anti-semitism and anti-Muslim sentiment growing more entrenched. 2024 ends with many more casualties and little prospect of peace as both sides dig in. The danger of massive escalation hovers over the world like the sword of Damocles, with the very real possibility of a nuclear exchange between Israel and Iran. The Biden administration and the incoming Hogan administration continue to strongly back Israel with money and materiel, and China and Russia match that support by supplying those backing the Palestinian cause. The prospect of a long proxy war becomes very real.

 

INDUSTRY: In a world that has grown more serious and dangerous, voices of strength and gravitas begin to grow in demand again, much as they did during the pandemic. For all the wrong reasons, middle aged talent and less-chatty reads have a strong 2024.

 

WORLD: China continues to rattle sabers at Taiwan, but with so much other turmoil is not inclined to invade in the coming year. Distracted by events in the Middle East, Western funding for Ukraine begins to run dry. A truce is inevitably reached with Russia retaining some territorial gains in the East, and both sides declare a form of victory as Ukraine boasts of facing down one of the world’s most massive powers without yielding its core territory, and Russia claims a win having incorporated more ethnically Russian regions of Ukraine back into its territory.

 

INDUSTRY: Facing many of the same issues that caused the strike in 2023, both commercial and interactive deals are made without a strike being necessary, as both sides understand that any outcome of a strike would essentially be a replay of the 2023 version, with too much collateral damage. There are wins and losses on both sides.

 

WORLD: Searching for some good news, housing prices in the USA finally start to come back to Earth, perhaps with a substantial crash at some point in 2024. By the end of the year rents and home prices are down 15% from their peaks, though decreasing interest rates make the prospects for a long term respite short-lived.

 

INDUSTRY: NAVA continues to focus on its core mission of protecting the industry as a whole, helping to craft bipartisan legislation protecting the likeness of artists, including our voices, at the Federal level.

 

WORLD: While instability percolates abroad, America’s pivot to the political center at year’s end ushers in the beginning of a new era that sees moderate voices prevail and a new coming together around common sense ideas for growth, cooperation, inclusivity, and tolerance of diverse perspectives. Extremists on both sides of the ideological spectrum become the subject of deeper skepticism, and we all begin to get along again as the nature of both major parties begins to change in the wake of their rebuke by voters in November.