And once again it’s time to make a jackass out of myself with predictions for the New Year both for the voiceover industry and the world at large.
Now, before you get too excited, I’m the guy who predicted that the election would be thrown to the House and that a No Labels ticket of Larry Hogan and Jared Polis would win the election, so get your grains of salt ready!
That said, let’s see how my other forecasts for 2024 did before we move on to my Kreskin act for 2025!
GOT IT RIGHT/PRETTY CLOSE
“2024 will clarify what areas of voiceover are likely to be heavily impacted by AI, and which are likely to feel very little effect. I am more confident than ever that this technology is very little threat to real creative VO, and will largely proliferate in the YouTube, cheap explainer, and perhaps Imaging and Affiliate spaces, where price pressure is always on. Low-end e-learning will disappear, but quality-minded buyers know this tech does not hold the attention of their audiences. Moreover, more and more regulation will be enacted to protect us and society at large, and people will continue to reflexively simply reject the vulgar inauthenticity of generative AI in creative media. If a technology makes a noise in a tech bro’s house, will anyone else hear it? We will see.”
Well, that feels pretty spot on. In fact, if anything, Imaging & Affiliate were less affected than expected, and low tier e-learning has not completely disappeared. Most accurately, I think it has become clear that first and foremost gaming is the most at-risk genre from AI, as the continuing strike attests to.
I’ll take an “almost” on my Super Bowl pick…..got the 49ers getting there right, but the Dolphins became frozen fish in Kansas City.
Sadly my prediction regarding the turmoil in the Middle East was just about right on the nose.
“In a world that has grown more serious and dangerous, voices of strength and gravitas begin to grow in demand again, much as they did during the pandemic. For all the wrong reasons, middle aged talent and less-chatty reads have a strong 2024.”
I was about six months early on that, but man was it spot on in the second half of the year and in overdrive since the election.
Got China not invading Taiwan right.
Feel pretty good about my prediction that NAVA would keep kicking arse in 2024!
BLEW IT/WTF WERE YOU THINKING?
My wishful thinking about certain online casting platforms getting their act together….not so much.
Obviously my West Wing/Madam Secretary moderate election fantasy did not quite pan out. LOL.
Commercial VO did just fine in 2024, (indeed it was my personal best year,) but I don’t think the floodgates opened overall as much as I expected in general advertising, though political spots did have a record year as predicted.
My prediction of a deal in Ukraine sadly has not yet come true.
Wrong on no more strikes 🙁
Wrong on the housing market, at least with regard to cost in most places.
“While instability percolates abroad, America’s pivot to the political center at year’s end ushers in the beginning of a new era that sees moderate voices prevail and a new coming together around common sense ideas for growth, cooperation, inclusivity, and tolerance of diverse perspectives. Extremists on both sides of the ideological spectrum become the subject of deeper skepticism, and we all begin to get along again as the nature of both major parties begins to change in the wake of their rebuke by voters in November.”
This might look better a year from now, but that goes in the “loss” column for the moment.
OKAY, TIME FOR THE 2025 PREDICTIONS!
INDUSTRY: It kinda feels like someone turned the tap back on high around October of this year, and barring black swan societal events I think 2025 is a banner year for voiceover…….indeed, as the flood of new entrants that came with pandemic has already dramatically slowed, and with many washouts starting to thin the herd again, I believe 2025 will restore balance in many respects in the industry. Work volume grew in 2024 and we’ll continue to see that in 2025, with the interesting added dimension of a return to parity among demographic groups. The pivot to more assertive reads that I suggested in my previous blog looks like it has staying power, and in 2025 I don’t think we’ll see the same, “this type of voice is hot,” vibe that we’ve experienced over the past decade. I believe the market will settle into a place where everybody who has chops has action, and you’ll see some surprising casting choices with unexpected sounds on unexpected brands.
WORLD: That Super Bowl pick……my poor Bengals…..Joe Burrow throws 8 touchdowns and still loses…..on his couch on Super Bowl Sunday, on Madden. Meanwhile in the ACTUAL game, we’re gonna get the rematch America wants, and with the return of Aidan Hutchinson just in time for the big game, the Detroit Lions edge out the Buffalo Bills with a last-minute Hutchinson strip sack of Josh Allen as the Bills are threatening to win in the final moments. BONUS PICK: The NFC Championship Game is a surprise Stafford/Goff Bowl, with the Los Angeles Rams unexpectedly meeting up with the Lions in Detroit, but taking a whoopin’ when they do.
INDUSTRY: With advertisers starting to get a better understanding of where younger eyeballs and ears are, we see that previously predicted flood of commercial spend in 2025, though we start to see geo-fencing become a much bigger factor in the way VO’s are hired, meaning LOTS more work, but the need to book in volume to earn. True national buys will slowly start to decline.
WORLD: The bird flu pandemic becomes a reality, but in a lucky twist of fate we get the version that has been infecting cows and dairy workers, not the nasty clade still found in birds. A short panic leads to the rapid realization that, like the H1N1 pandemic in 2009, it’s conjunctivitis and maybe a cold, and it’s a three week news cycle.
INDUSTRY: I’m calling at least one big agency merger in 2025.
WORLD: The first year of the new administration is a mixed bag. Successes will include making some real progress in cutting overspending by government and slashing bureaucracy. Trump will be largely successful in consolidating executive power around him, and that reality coupled with world leaders’ collective concerns about his predictability will actually help the world becomes a little more stable. The Russia/Ukraine war will end the way I predicted it would in 2024…..with a deal that leaves territory under the control it is currently under, while creating strong security guarantees for Ukraine and other East European nations. Israel and Saudi Arabia will strike a groundbreaking deal to bring the action in Gaza to an end. One or more nations will attack and destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities and capabilities, and the Iranian regime will fall by popular action and be replaced by a moderate, Western-style democracy.
On the other hand, Trump’s immigration crackdown will produce horrifying visuals, and scandals will quickly emerge over the enrichment of private detention companies and their abuse of deportees. A dramatically overvalued stock market will crash hard and the inflation crisis will be replaced by an unemployment crisis. The Democratic Party will sense the opportunity to seize back the mantel of populism and push hard for a stronger safety net, low cost education, and in the wake of copycats of the United Healthcare CEO murder the drumbeat for ending for-profit healthcare will become a movement that may be the most important issue in politics by the end of 2025. China still won’t invade Taiwan, unless the Trump administration actually moves on the Panama Canal or other territory, in which case they will frame it as a tit-for-tat.
INDUSTRY: The talent who have been hearing, “we have too many of you,” from agents over the past few years will hear that less in 2025, as long as their skill set and package for representation is impeccable, as the previously predicted market equilibrium grows. On the other hand, the 25-35 demographic might start hearing that more than they have in the past, as agents have been collecting youth for awhile now and are reaching a saturation point. The pendulum always swings.
WORLD: While some will dispute the findings, scientists will reveal convincing evidence of the existence (past or present) of an alien civilization in 2025.
INDUSTRY: You’ll hear Southern voices/accents in very unexpected placements. Write it down.